It is time to move on, but so many folks are still having a hard time.
Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the first woman from a major political party to be nominated for President of the Unted States.
And, she's going to win, too.
--Ardent Henry
Commentary on films, books, television, politics, and a little fiction of my own, to boot.
It is time to move on, but so many folks are still having a hard time.
Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the first woman from a major political party to be nominated for President of the Unted States.
And, she's going to win, too.
--Ardent Henry
"Any stupid, absurd remark made by Donald Drumpf becomes the story of the week," Sanders said. "Maybe, just maybe, we might want to have a serious discussion about the serious issues facing America."
HRC enjoys a pint in Wisconsin |
Do not believe for a second any of the outrage from the anti-choice crowd re Drumpf's statements yesterday. There is nothing the forced birth folks would love to see more than women (especially women of color!) carted off to prison facing murder charges for terminating their pregnancies. Problem is they cannot say that sort of stuff out loud.
Once again we have an instance of Drumpf putting voice to the GOP's deepest darkest desires. The party line for forced birthers is that the woman is a "victim" and the doctor is a murderer. But the only reason they stick to that is because if they didn't they would never get elected, and also because they are cowards and bullies who want to legislate women's reproductive organs, and yet, never have to take any real responsibility for such legislation.
But, hey, Nader-loving, Sanders supportin', Susan Sarandon says not to worry. She, and a horde of other Sanders acolytes, are perfectly willing to vote for Drumpf if Bernie cannot secure the nomination because that will hasten the Revolution.
Sure, Sister.
-- Michael David Spitler
St Helena contains my favorite winery of all-time, Keenan. It has my favorite Michael Three Star Michelin Star restaurant, Market. And, Cindy's Backstreet Kitchen. And, the crazy renovated hotel downtown. We will never stay there again. And, the amazing Cabernet Sauvignon fruit that makes some of the best wine in the world. I love its' toy town feel, and Sunshine Grocery. I love how the winemaking legends have lunch at Market (and other places.) I love the art cinema downtown. I love the down home yet sophisticated feel of the locals.
St Helena is so so so special to me and the Wife. This is my pathetic tribute to it.
All my love,
Ardent
Ugh! I have been telling you guys about Spy Magazine and the "short-fingered vulgarian" for months now. John Oliver does a segment, and now you folks all wake up. Anyroad,
The biggest winner on Super Tuesday was Hillary Clinton. The second biggest winner was Trump. It was almost insidious his performance a few days ago. He won a bunch of states, but he did not win them all. Tailgunner won two, and little Rubitron won his first state (Minnesota), too.
Trump needs folks to stay in this thing, so his not sweeping all the states actually works to his favor. And Trump needs to keep winning states with just one-third of the Primary vote, and with the other clowns thinking they are still in this thing, and finally attacking Trump, and not each other, it looks to still be too late. Get ready for the coronation. Hey, these asshat GOP guys are not too bright.
I did not watch the shitshow last night, but I am aware that Fox hates Trump and Rubio now. Trump apparently looked flustered. Folks waved for the cameras behind the moderators last night! Just like a football game! Florida is currently being bombarded with anti-Trump ads. Rubio hates Democrats for talking about folks being poisoned in Michigan, and nobody really cares what Mittens thinks anymore.
Will the anti-Trump campaign and "strategic voting" derail Drumpf. I don't see it.
There are nine contests for the GOP over the next five days. I have Trump winning Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, and Mississippi. I have Cruz winning Kansas, and Rubitron winning Puerto Rico. I have no idea who will win Idaho and Hawaii. (Maybe Cruz and Rubitron, respectively?)
The Drumpf Dirigible floats on.
Ciao,Ardent
That is what it looked like in 2005 when the Vermont Catamounts stunned Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. And, that is essentially the kind of thing that feelthebern is trying to do now, eleven years later,
Can Bernie Sanders fit in to Cinderella's slipper, and win it all at the Big Dance?
It has been a wonderful run, and there is no reason for him to give up now, but the math is not adding up, and Midnight is drawing near.
The feelthebern kids are trotting out the delegate counts, excluding the Super Delegates -- which they should -- saying, "Only two-hundred down! Lots of big states coming up!"
What they fail to mention is how delegates are awarded proportionally in the Primary contests. And that the math looks especially tough for the cause in those big states in March.
Take a look at the 2016 Primary Forecasts at Nate Silver's 538. (Or, maybe not if you are a dreaming about a revolution.)
Michigan, 8 March: HRC a greater than 99% chance to win. Florida, 15 March: HRC a greater than 99% chance to win. Illinois, 15 March: HRC a 98% chance to win. Ohio, 15 March: HRC an 87% chance to win.What those numbers mean are that not only is Madam Secretary likely to win all four of those delegate rich states, but that she is polling to win those states by very large margins, which will reflect in the proportional allotment of delegates.
Bernie is going to win some states this month, too. But, for Sanders to realistically have a shot at this thing, the numbers above would have to be completely flipped. He would have to have a 99% chance to win Michigan, Florida, and Illinois; an 87% chance to win Ohio. Because he is down by 200 delegates, and he has to make that deficit up quickly. He can not do that by plucking off Maine, Nebraska, and Kansas, crossing his fingers and counting on New York, California, Oregon, and Washington state. California does not vote until June! This will all be wrapped up by then.
I do not want Bernie to drop out. I want him out there as long as he is willing, and he has money. I would like to see him start sharing some of that money with the DNC for down ballot races, like Hillary has been doing all along; and I'd like to see his supporters start donating to down ballot Democrats, as well. But this nomination contest is essentially over, and on March 16 Bernie and his supporters are going to have to start planning their endgame. Midnight is drawing near.
As for the next six contests: Bernie will win Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine. Ninety-seven delegates are up for grabs there. Hillary will win Louisiana, Michigan, and Mississippi. Hillary's states have 247 delegates in play. For all six contests I have Clinton claiming 55% of the delegates, extending her 200 delegate lead by about thirty, or so.
Ciao,Ardent Henry
This is the second of my three posts for predicting the Democratic Primaries on Super Tuesday. This post focuses on "The Big XII" region: Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado (hey, they used to be in The Big XII), and American Samoa (which I have got to throw in somewhere.)
This is a good region for Hillary Clinton, mainly because of Texas, which has the largest amount of delegates so far, and because she is doing so well in the Lone Star State.
Even if Hillary lost both Oklahoma and Colorado, both of those losses would be nail biters, and the delegates would split fairly evenly.
Although there has been a fair amount of talk about how well Senator Sanders is doing in Oklahoma, and about his massive rally in Tulsa recently, I am from Oklahoma, and I have a very hard time believing he is going to win there. I have Madame Secretary winning Oklahoma by a slim margin, winning huge in Texas, and winning American Samoa (despite Tulsi Gabbard's leaving the DNC and endorsing Sanders.)
There has been hardly any polling from Colorado, so, I am going on my gut, and the social media I have been following, and calling it for Bernie. But it will be close.
Senator Sanders will not hit any of Nate Silver's "benchmarks for the nomination" in this region. And, I have the delegate split as 60/40 for Ms Clinton. She should end up with roughly 230 delegates to Sanders' 150.
Ciao, Ardent Henry
Or, it is the short fingered vulgarian's world, and we are all just living in it. One of the betting markets that the 538 nerds love has Trump at about fifty percent to win the nomination, Rubitron at forty, and Cruz in single digits. Notably, Nate Silver is still reluctant to "buy" Trump at this point. He is "holding".
The theory is from Nate, and others, that Rubio really is still in this thing at least until Florida on March 15. Rubio would have to win his home state, a state he is currently trailing in the polls, Puerto Rico, and blue districts in states like Illinois, California, and Ohio. And, Rubio is going to have to start finishing in second in just about every contest until Florida and beyond, wherein he will have to start winning the back loaded winner take all states at the end. He also needs Carson to stay in longer than Cruz, and needs Kasich out sooner rather than later. Plus, Rubio needs the big money guys that are on the sidelines to start backing him.
Gosh, that seems like a tall order. It is possible, and I suppose we can not officially call the nomination for Trump until Florida, but I see this as incredibly unlikely. More and more I am starting to believe that the GOP machine is beginning to resign themselves to a Trump nomination. Perhaps they think they can control him at that point. Good luck with that.
As for the big money guys hitching their star to Rubio's wagon, I see no reason why they should do that on March 2. Because it is going to be a massive Trump fest the day before.
On Super Tuesday I have Trump winning Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia.
I think Rubitron should finish in second in all of those states mentioned above except for Arkansas and Oklahoma, where Cruz would.
I think Cruz will win Texas, and Trump will finish second there.
I honestly have no idea who will win Alaska and Minnesota. Rubio's best shot for an upset victory is Virginia, and maybe Minnesota, who the heck knows.
And, I am calling the American Samoa Primary for Marco Rubio. So, he has that going for him.
Mwah, Ardent Henry
Douglas, or Dougie, as he was known to his friends and co-workers, Slocombe passed away yesterday in West London, where he lived with his daughter, following complications from a fall. He had just celebrated his one hundred and third birthday earlier in the month.
Probably best known for shooting the first three Indiana Jones films with Steven Spielberg as director, I know him better for all the amazing work he did at Ealing Studios. What he shot there at that famous West London studio reads for me like a personal Greatest Films of All Time list: Hue and Cry, Dead of Night, It Always Rains on Sunday, Saraband for Dead Lovers (Ealing's first crack at luscious English Technicolor), The Man in the White Suit, The Titfield Thunderbolt, The Lavender Hill Mob, and, of course, Kind Hearts and Coronets, which he personally believed to be the finest screenplay he had ever read. (He will not get any argument from me on that score.)
He also shot Julia, Guns at Batasi, The Italian Job, The Lion in Winter, The Sailor Who Fell from Grace with the Sea, Jesus Christ Superstar, Rollerball, Never Say Never Again, and The Servant.
Speaking to the BBC last year, Slocombe recalled working under the Ealing Studio mogul, Sir Michael Balcon, as well as filming on location in a city still scarred by bomb damage.
"I think I'm the last man standing," he said. "All the major technicians and the producers and directors are gone - and that famous repertory company of actors and actresses."
One of my favorite stories about Slocombe is how he shot in camera a half dozen members of the D'Ascoyne family, all played by Alec Guinness, using multiple exposures over a period of a few days. Since the lighting had to be the exact same for every exposure, and the camera could not be moved even a millimeter, he slept in the studio to make sure everything went correctly.
Slocombe, himself, was also a perfect gentleman, who was extremely generous with his time, talking to interviewers about his work and process numerous times, even in his later years.
I only wish I could be at Stage Six in Ealing right now to raise a pint in his honor.
Mr Slocombe is survived by his daughter, Georgina.
-- Ardent Henry
This contest is a bona fide pick 'em, or toss up. I could very well be wrong regarding the winner, but whoever does prevail, I am sure it will be by a razor thin margin.
Which also means that even if Clinton wins, it will be viewed by the TradMedia as a devasting loss. It will be another tough tough week for the I'm With Her folks until South Carolina on the 27th.
And so despite the Clinton folks frantically moving the goalposts in Nevada (and irking Harry Reid in the process), I am picking Hillary Clinton to win the popular vote in Nevada by the thinnest of margins, 51% to Sanders' 49%.
Note, too, that Sanders could well earn more Nevada delegates (not counting super delegates here) than Clinton due to the caucus process. That is exactly what Obama did to Clinton in 2008.
Mwah,Ardent Henry
In the exceptional and absolutely must be seen documentary, The Black Panthers: Vanguard of the Revolution, there is a witness who is describing the Chicago Police's assassination of Fred Hampton, and she says (I am paraphrasing) that the police had made a terrible mistake by not locking the flat up, and sealing the "crime scene".
I am here to tell you there was no mistake made. The Chicago Police and Hoover and the FBI left that house open on purpose. They were sending a message to all the black folks and Black Panthers, in Chicago, and throughout the country and the world: "This is what we do," they said, "To uppity negroes."
Everyone, please take a couple of hours out of your busy lives, and watch Stanley Nelson's timely and important documentary. You will be better for it.
-- MDS