Democratic Predictions for Super Tuesday, Part III, the "SEC"

Before I start with my predictions for the "SEC" region of Super Tuesday, I would like to point out a couple of things to the feelthebern folks: Please please please stop touting hypothetical one v one match ups for the general election. Those polls do not mean a gosh darn thing right now. Plus, the GOP and their Super PAC legions have yet to spend one dollar on negative ads against Senator Sanders. In fact the GOP and their Super PACs have only spent money running negative ads in the Primaries against Madame Secretary. (Yeh, and she is still beating Bernie. Impressive.)

Second, there was a lot of whinging yesterday from the feelthebern crowd about, "Well, she won South Carolina. Big deal, it won't vote Democratic in the general." So, those Democrats in red states do not count? Seriously? And, that attitude does nothing so more as show your naïveté re elections. That is exactly how you win nominations! Dems have to win Red State Primaries, and Reublicans have to win Blue State Primaries. In fact, that is one of the litmus tests for selecting a nominee, and producing someone who can win the General.

Anyway, the "SEC" is the best region for Hillary on Super Tuesday. This will be a Red State rout for Ms Clinton, and she will win every single one of these states on March 1. And, by big big margins, too.

The states are: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Virginia. Senator Sanders best chance for an upset would be Virginia, but I find it very unlikely.

Moreover, I do not see Sanders hitting any of Nate Silver's "benchmarks for the Nomination" in this region. Maybe in Alabama. Maybe in Virginia.

I have Clinton winning 63% of the SEC delegates on March 1. About 250 to 150 for Sanders. For all three regions on Super Tuesday I have Ms Clinton winning 58% of the delegates, a total margin for Ms Clinton 590 to the Senator's 450.

And, since all Democratic Primaries have delegates awarded proportionally, this means Senator Sanders is in a world of hurt. After Super Tuesday Sanders would have to win every single little state, and would have to not only win states like CA, OH, PA, FL, NY, IL, but win them by very large margins to make up the one hundred and fifty delegates he is behind in.
It is not impossible. Just very very difficult.

Ciao,

Ardent

Democratic Predictions for Super Tuesday, Part II, "The Big XII"

 

This is the second of my three posts for predicting the Democratic Primaries on Super Tuesday. This post focuses on "The Big XII" region: Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado (hey, they used to be in The Big XII), and American Samoa (which I have got to throw in somewhere.)

This is a good region for Hillary Clinton, mainly because of Texas, which has the largest amount of delegates so far, and because she is doing so well in the Lone Star State.

Even if Hillary lost both Oklahoma and Colorado, both of those losses would be nail biters, and the delegates would split fairly evenly.

Although there has been a fair amount of talk about how well Senator Sanders is doing in Oklahoma, and about his massive rally in Tulsa recently, I am from Oklahoma, and I have a very hard time believing he is going to win there. I have Madame Secretary winning Oklahoma by a slim margin, winning huge in Texas, and winning American Samoa (despite Tulsi Gabbard's leaving the DNC and endorsing Sanders.)

There has been hardly any polling from Colorado, so, I am going on my gut, and the social media I have been following, and calling it for Bernie. But it will be close.

Senator Sanders will not hit any of Nate Silver's "benchmarks for the nomination" in this region. And, I have the delegate split as 60/40 for Ms Clinton. She should end up with roughly 230 delegates to Sanders' 150.

 

 

 

 

Ciao,

Ardent Henry

 

Democrats Super Tuesday Predictions, Part I, "The Big East" UPDATE!!! 2/29/16

I am going to divide my predictions for the Democratic Super Tuesday Primary contests in to three different posts. They will divided regionally, and they will be named after college athletic conferences (which you should know are not perfect by any stretch of the imagination.) I have also decided to give the feelleberne folks the good news first. So savor.

The "Big East" Primaries on March 1 are Massachusetts, Vermont, Minnesota (I told you it wasn't perfect), and Democrats Abroad.

I am calling that Senator Sanders will win all four of these contests. Minnesota and Massachusetts will be close, Vermont will be a blowout, and who knows about Democrats Abroad, really, though I figure those sort of folks probably skew fairly left.

I am predicting that Sanders will claim 58% of the delegates in these states, giving him a Big East margin of roughly 150 to 100 for Clinton.

As for Nate Silver's famous "benchmarks for a Sanders nomination", I only see Sanders hitting that in Vermont. Maybe in Massachusetts. Maybe in Minnesota. If he does hit three benchmarks in this region it will have been a big night for him. Because the other two regions on March 1, "The Big XII" and the "SEC" do not look nearly as good for him as this region.

Ciao,

Ardent

UPDATE:  I am changing my call on Massachusetts.  Clinton wins Massachusetts narrowly, and splits the delegates for that state at about a 55/45 rate.  

Ardent

GOP Super Tuesday Predictions

 

Or, it is the short fingered vulgarian's world, and we are all just living in it. One of the betting markets that the 538 nerds love has Trump at about fifty percent to win the nomination, Rubitron at forty, and Cruz in single digits. Notably, Nate Silver is still reluctant to "buy" Trump at this point. He is "holding".

The theory is from Nate, and others, that Rubio really is still in this thing at least until Florida on March 15. Rubio would have to win his home state, a state he is currently trailing in the polls, Puerto Rico, and blue districts in states like Illinois, California, and Ohio. And, Rubio is going to have to start finishing in second in just about every contest until Florida and beyond, wherein he will have to start winning the back loaded winner take all states at the end. He also needs Carson to stay in longer than Cruz, and needs Kasich out sooner rather than later. Plus, Rubio needs the big money guys that are on the sidelines to start backing him.

Gosh, that seems like a tall order. It is possible, and I suppose we can not officially call the nomination for Trump until Florida, but I see this as incredibly unlikely. More and more I am starting to believe that the GOP machine is beginning to resign themselves to a Trump nomination. Perhaps they think they can control him at that point. Good luck with that.

As for the big money guys hitching their star to Rubio's wagon, I see no reason why they should do that on March 2. Because it is going to be a massive Trump fest the day before.

On Super Tuesday I have Trump winning Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia.

I think Rubitron should finish in second in all of those states mentioned above except for Arkansas and Oklahoma, where Cruz would.

I think Cruz will win Texas, and Trump will finish second there.

I honestly have no idea who will win Alaska and Minnesota. Rubio's best shot for an upset victory is Virginia, and maybe Minnesota, who the heck knows.

And, I am calling the American Samoa Primary for Marco Rubio. So, he has that going for him.

 

 

 

Mwah,

Ardent Henry

 

Douglas (Dougie) Slocombe (1913-2016)

 

Douglas, or Dougie, as he was known to his friends and co-workers, Slocombe passed away yesterday in West London, where he lived with his daughter, following complications from a fall. He had just celebrated his one hundred and third birthday earlier in the month.

Probably best known for shooting the first three Indiana Jones films with Steven Spielberg as director, I know him better for all the amazing work he did at Ealing Studios. What he shot there at that famous West London studio reads for me like a personal Greatest Films of All Time list: Hue and Cry, Dead of Night, It Always Rains on Sunday, Saraband for Dead Lovers (Ealing's first crack at luscious English Technicolor), The Man in the White Suit, The Titfield Thunderbolt, The Lavender Hill Mob, and, of course, Kind Hearts and Coronets, which he personally believed to be the finest screenplay he had ever read. (He will not get any argument from me on that score.)

He also shot Julia, Guns at Batasi, The Italian Job, The Lion in Winter, The Sailor Who Fell from Grace with the Sea, Jesus Christ Superstar, Rollerball, Never Say Never Again, and The Servant.

Speaking to the BBC last year, Slocombe recalled working under the Ealing Studio mogul, Sir Michael Balcon, as well as filming on location in a city still scarred by bomb damage.

"I think I'm the last man standing," he said. "All the major technicians and the producers and directors are gone - and that famous repertory company of actors and actresses."

One of my favorite stories about Slocombe is how he shot in camera a half dozen members of the D'Ascoyne family, all played by Alec Guinness, using multiple exposures over a period of a few days. Since the lighting had to be the exact same for every exposure, and the camera could not be moved even a millimeter, he slept in the studio to make sure everything went correctly.

Slocombe, himself, was also a perfect gentleman, who was extremely generous with his time, talking to interviewers about his work and process numerous times, even in his later years.

I only wish I could be at Stage Six in Ealing right now to raise a pint in his honor.

Mr Slocombe is survived by his daughter, Georgina.

 

 

 

 

 

 

-- Ardent Henry

 

Prediction for the South Carolina Democratic Primary

For the I'm With Her crowd February 27 can not get here fast enough. Finally Hillary Clinton will get the type of result that her campaign needs (and deserves.)

Moreover, Ms Clinton has the opportunity here to win a slightly smaller than three to two ratio of the delegates. She would have to win by at least eighteen percentage points to achieve that, which is right where I am calling this race: HRC 59% Sanders 41%.

The TradMedia will shrug their shoulders and continue to laud Sanders' insurgent 'revolution',  "She was supposed to win in South Carolina" they will say, but Clinton supporters and the campaign will at last have some wind behind them as they head in to Super Tuesday. They will enjoy some of those plane rides, too, now.

March 1. That is where all of this really really gets serious.

Ciao,

Ardent

Prediction for Democratic Caucus in Nevada

This contest is a bona fide pick 'em, or toss up. I could very well be wrong regarding the winner, but whoever does prevail, I am sure it will be by a razor thin margin.

Which also means that even if Clinton wins, it will be viewed by the TradMedia as a devasting loss. It will be another tough tough week for the I'm With Her folks until South Carolina on the 27th.

And so despite the Clinton folks frantically moving the goalposts in Nevada (and irking Harry Reid in the process), I am picking Hillary Clinton to win the popular vote in Nevada by the thinnest of margins, 51% to Sanders' 49%.

Note, too, that Sanders could well earn more Nevada delegates (not counting super delegates here) than Clinton due to the caucus process. That is exactly what Obama did to Clinton in 2008.

 

 

 

Mwah,

Ardent Henry

 

This Is What We Do

In the exceptional and absolutely must be seen documentary, The Black Panthers: Vanguard of the Revolution, there is a witness who is describing the Chicago Police's assassination of Fred Hampton, and she says (I am paraphrasing) that the police had made a terrible mistake by not locking the flat up, and sealing the "crime scene".

I am here to tell you there was no mistake made. The Chicago Police and Hoover and the FBI left that house open on purpose. They were sending a message to all the black folks and Black Panthers, in Chicago, and throughout the country and the world: "This is what we do," they said, "To uppity negroes."

Everyone, please take a couple of hours out of your busy lives, and watch Stanley Nelson's timely and important documentary. You will be better for it.

 

 

 

-- MDS

 

Nevada GOP Caucus Prediction

Nevada, for both parties, is going to be very hard to predict. Good polling, or any polling, for that matter, is remote and precious.
Regardless, as far as the GOP is concerned, I see no break in Trumpmentum. I have Trump winning big again, and scaring the living daylights out of the "establishment".
Will Robotron, Kasich, and Jeb! be forced to say nice things about Planned Parenthood just to stay in this thing?

NEVADA GOP CAUCUS 23 FEB 2016

Trump 31%

Cruz 19%

Jeb! 18%

Rubio the Robot 15%

Kasich 12%

Carson 5%

Ciao,

Ardent

GOP South Carolina Primary Prediction

It is going to get tougher picking these Primaries because there are so many states happening over the next three weeks, and for a lot of these states the polling is either non-existent or crappy or both. But I am going to keep going anyway. Today I am predicting a win for Donald Trump in South Carolina on Saturday, 20 February 2016. I think Jeb! will oust cratering Rubio the Robot for third.

Here it is:

20 Feb 2016 South Carolina Primary

Trump 35%

Cruz 21%

Jeb! 16%

Rubio the Robot 13%

Carson 8%

Kasich 7%

Digby, at her blog, Hullabaloo, is totally right. Eventually Jeb, Robotron, and Kasich are going to have to set their sights on Trump and/or Cruz. Otherwise Trump could have this wrapped up by next month. The "establishment" candidates are going to actually have to win some states if they want the nomination.

Love you all,

Ardent

A Verse for Her

Oh, iCarly

You are a nasty piece of work

Where next will your grifting be?

Chris Christie, on the other hand, did at least one good thing before he ended his deluded and dubious quest. He pole axed Marco Rubio in to next month, and might very well have ended young Marco's political career.
Is Gilmore still in this thing? I think Carson has got to be the next to drop, after South Carolina.

Ciao,

Ardent

First

A story, and then a couple of quick thoughts on what I think is the finest film of the year, and one of the best films of this new century.

The story goes: I went to see Carol on my own. Took BART to MacArthur and then walked to Piedmont. (Went to three different bookstores, by the way, bought a cool old pocket paperback of The Crying of Lot 49, Antonia Fraser's Marie Antoinette biography, and Kingsley Amis' Girl, 20.) When I stepped in to the theater, it was a matinee on a Saturday, I realized that of the two dozen folks there, I was the only dude. There was a dyke couple at the back who had obviously seen the film before, as they laughed at inappropriate times. It was as if they already had inside jokes about the film amongst themselves. There was scattered applause at the end of Carol.

I did not applaud. I leaned forward in my seat, shook my head, and said aloud, "Wow."

That last shot.

But it is more than that. Every element, from the score, to the art direction, to the cinematography, to the acting, to the script, etc, ... is absolutely perfect.

One of my favorite parts of the film is the way the script and direction fetishize some of Carol's clothes and belongings, making them sensual exotic magical tokens to a world that Rooney Mara's character, Therese, is desperate to explore.

And that last shot.

Mwah, ...

Howard Hawks on Line One for You, Sir

Spotlight is a fine film that is actually better at home than it is in the theater.  But as for one of my favorite blogger's contention that Spotlight is the greatest newspaper movie ever made, I would tell him that Howard Hawks, Cary Grant, and Rosalind Russell would like to have a word.  

-- Ardent Henry

Lending Library

We are building a lending library here at work, which is a cool thing to do, by donating books from our own personal collections. A team member here, who is quite familiar with my passion for reading and books, asked me what I was planning on donating, and I reluctantly but honestly told him that I was loathe to part with any of my books right now.
Which I guess makes me look like a real jerk. But the fact of the matter is that I never just put a book away. It should always be available to me for whenever, and for whatever reason, I should need to consult it again.
All of my books are reference books, it seems.



-- Ardent Henry

Posted with Blogsy

Beasts of No Nation

Is perhaps not as great or as important as it might think it is, while at the same time still being very worthwhile.  And, though this was no Jane Eyre, I am still a big champion of Cary Fukunaga, and will always look forward to his future projects.  Fukunaga is kind of a one man band prodigy type.  He writes, directs, and shoots his pictures.  Insane.

Can we just acknowledge that Idris Elba is one of the finest actors on the planet?  You can see and feel the motivation for each one of his acting choices.  Even the slightly off pitch ones translate in an odd and satisfying way.  And, he really did get screwed by the Academy this time around, but that's just par for the course for that organization.  

-- Ardent Henry

Pretty funny.

I watched both the CNN Forum and the MSNBC debate over the past two days, and I was very happy to notice that Hillary Clinton was most definitely not the Antichrist! 

What a relief, right?



-- Ardent Henry

I watched The Diary of a Teenage Girl

Today before I came to work.  And, I have to say, it made me pretty uncomfortable.  I understand it is based on a true story, and I can understand why the Mom resolved the situation with her daughter the way the she did.  They only have each other, and Minnie, the daughter -- who was played with incredible swagger and bravery by Bel Powley -- is still a child.

I hope everything worked out for this family in real life.  I relish difficult or upsetting movies, but this was one that I might not ever watch again.  It is not bad.  The film is very well done with some fantastic acting performances, but in the end, I guess it is just not my type of film personally.  





-- Ardent