Hey, folks

 

Do not believe for a second any of the outrage from the anti-choice crowd re Drumpf's statements yesterday. There is nothing the forced birth folks would love to see more than women (especially women of color!) carted off to prison facing murder charges for terminating their pregnancies. Problem is they cannot say that sort of stuff out loud.

Once again we have an instance of Drumpf putting voice to the GOP's deepest darkest desires. The party line for forced birthers is that the woman is a "victim" and the doctor is a murderer. But the only reason they stick to that is because if they didn't they would never get elected, and also because they are cowards and bullies who want to legislate women's reproductive organs, and yet, never have to take any real responsibility for such legislation.

But, hey, Nader-loving, Sanders supportin', Susan Sarandon says not to worry. She, and a horde of other Sanders acolytes, are perfectly willing to vote for Drumpf if Bernie cannot secure the nomination because that will hasten the Revolution.

Sure, Sister.

 

 

 

-- Michael David Spitler

 

St Helena

Thanks to my food and wine mentor, Annie Smith, for this.

 

St Helena contains my favorite winery of all-time, Keenan. It has my favorite Michael Three Star Michelin Star restaurant, Market. And, Cindy's Backstreet Kitchen. And, the crazy renovated hotel downtown. We will never stay there again. And, the amazing Cabernet Sauvignon fruit that makes some of the best wine in the world. I love its' toy town feel, and Sunshine Grocery. I love how the winemaking legends have lunch at Market (and other places.) I love the art cinema downtown. I love the down home yet sophisticated feel of the locals.

 

St Helena is so so so special to me and the Wife. This is my pathetic tribute to it.

 

 

All my love,

Ardent

#feelleberne

Alright, all you Berniebros, Bernie folks, and Bernie kids, now is your time. Are you excited? Are you truly feeling the Bern? Because until 19 April when New York state has its' closed Primary, there will be eight Democratic contests, seven of which Senator Sanders should win. In fact, I suggest to you, that the high point of Bernie's bid for the nomination will occur on 5 April when he delivers his speech celebrating his recent wins in Wisconsin and Washington state. That may very well be the absolute high point of Sanders' long career of public service. Plus, the media will be lapping it all up. "Bernie is only two contests behind!" And the knives will come out for Hillary all over again, "Can Bernie do this?" will be furiously whispered all across the cable networks, newspapers, and digital ink of blogs.

"Can Bernie do this?"

Bernie's finest moment of the campaign -- much like what happened with Michigan and the five state Hillary sweep one week later -- will have its' own hangover. That hangover is called New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Those four Hillary wins at the end of April will all but seal the deal, and that is when we will seriously start hearing the media say things like, "... the first woman ever to be nominated by a major party for President of the United States".

Because I hate to break it to you, but, No, Bernie can not do this. Look at the math. After Bernie's Magical Mystery Tour through the West, where he wins Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wyoming, and Wisconsin, I have him cutting into Secretary Clinton's lead by forty-five delegates. That means there will be another eight contests run off the clock and Clinton will still have a commanding lead of two hundred and seventy-five pledged delegates with only twenty states to go.

In order just to reach a virtual tie -- and I certainly do not think that Clnton's super delegates would switch to Bernie if he was only on even terms with her in pledged delegates -- Bernie would have to average +14 pledged delegates for every single one of the last twenty contests. And we all know he is not going to win all twenty contests, which means he needs a lot of big state Bernie blowouts.

Say what you will about Hillary's sweep through the South, or the Michigan debacle (she lost by two points), or her "uninspiring speeches", or how she should "smile more", but the fact remains that even if Hillary does not win a big state -- and she has won just about every big state contested so far -- she at least keeps it close enough that Bernie cannot make any serious headway.

That is why I do not buy in to any of this "Hillary is underachieving" boojwah. Hillary Clinton leads in contests won, the popular primary vote (by two million votes) and the pledged delegate count. Hate to get all Drumpf on you, but that is what winning the nomination looks like.

Creating hashtags and crushing it on Twitter does not necessarily win you elections.

******

I am 47-6 picking primary contests so far. That works out to 89%. I am not going to reach my goal of 95%. My new goal is ninety percent. I have been wrong on Missouri for both parties, Oklahoma for both parties, Maine for the GOP, and Michigan for the Dems. I am picking Arizona for Clinton, and Idaho, Utah, Washington state, Alaska, Hawaii, Wyoming, and Wisconsin for Senator Sanders. (I am at liberty to change my Wisconsin pick as we get closer to it. I still think Clinton has a shot at eking out a narrow victory there.)

As for the upcoming GOP contests, I have Drumpf winning Arizona and Cruz winning Utah. I am not ready to pick the Wisconsin GOP Primary yet.

Love you all,

Ardent

Could She Have Had A Worse Week?

Michigan should not have been the nightmare it was for Madam Secretary. Despite being one of the biggest Primary upsets in decades -- Nate Silver likes to point to 1984 New Hampshire where Hart beat Mondale after being seventeen points down in the polls (Mondale still won the nomination) -- Senator Sanders actually only beat HRC by one percentage point, and on balance lost ground in the delegate count due to him getting thrashed in Mississippi.

But then Sanders had a great debate against Clinton in Miami, and Ms Clinton quickly seemed to come undone, saying insanely idiotic things about the death penalty, and the Reagans and AIDS.

Clinton had clearly started to take this election for granted. And, I suppose, I, and other folks had, too.

You know, whatever, I, or the media, do regarding handicapping this race, really has very little impact compared to what Clinton does to actually winning the nomination.

She should have handled the Michigan set back much better than she did. HRC is rattled right now, and she has to get to work to actually sealing this deal before Sanders starts to actually believe he can win this thing. She still has a significant lead, and there really is no need to panic. She is going to say more stupid things, there will be more unforced errors, but Sanders is going to fluff his lines, as well. Sanders can not win every news cycle until the Convention.

So is Michigan an outlier? Or is it a storm warning for the feel the bern tsunami revolution headed our way? I am betting on the former, and, however it turns out ultimately, I can guarantee that it will be another very long night with three very tight races.

North Carolina will call for Clinton round about 4:45 PDT, and Florida for Clinton, too, about a half hour after that. That will establish what Sanders must overcome the rest of the night. I figure that to be about fifty delegates. Even if Sanders were to win all three remaining states, once again, on balance, he would end up further behind Clinton than he is right now.

But if Sanders sweeps Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri tonght, no one is going to be talking about delegate counts much, except to point out that the rest of the month looks very good for Bernie, and he can finally start to chip away at that lead. It would be like Michigan all over again, everyone waiting breathlessly for HRC's next gaffe. The Vermont Catamounts take down Syracuse again.

I am 38-4 picking these contests. I got Oklahoma wrong for both parties, Maine wrong for the GOP, and Michigan wrong for the Democrats. That works out to a ninety percent average, and I take this little game very seriously. Primaries are much harder to predict than a General, and my personal goal is to get up to around ninety-five percent when this is all over. But it sucks because I make no bones about having a horse in this race, and my friends can be real dicks, pointing to the Jumbotron and shouting, "Scoreboard!" Folks that barely follow politics, or newcomers, or people that would rather be mean. I gotta let those folks be, and pay them no never mind.

This is how I see the results: Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and Ohio for Clinton. Missouri for Sanders. Clinton should take 55% of tonight's pledged delegates, increasing her lead by sixty-five.

For the GOP I have Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Illinois. Cruz will win Missouri, and Kasich will win Ohio. Rubio will suspend his campaign later this week.

I love you all,

Ciao!

This Is Why

 

This is why, whether it is Hillary or Bernie, it is absolutely imperative that we elect a Democrat for President in November.

Please donate to Planned Parenthood today. I did.

 

 

 

-- MD Spitler

 

Jim Webb is Bucking to be Drumpf's Veep

Ugh! I have been telling you guys about Spy Magazine and the "short-fingered vulgarian" for months now. John Oliver does a segment, and now you folks all wake up. Anyroad,

The biggest winner on Super Tuesday was Hillary Clinton. The second biggest winner was Trump. It was almost insidious his performance a few days ago. He won a bunch of states, but he did not win them all. Tailgunner won two, and little Rubitron won his first state (Minnesota), too.

Trump needs folks to stay in this thing, so his not sweeping all the states actually works to his favor. And Trump needs to keep winning states with just one-third of the Primary vote, and with the other clowns thinking they are still in this thing, and finally attacking Trump, and not each other, it looks to still be too late. Get ready for the coronation. Hey, these asshat GOP guys are not too bright.

I did not watch the shitshow last night, but I am aware that Fox hates Trump and Rubio now. Trump apparently looked flustered. Folks waved for the cameras behind the moderators last night! Just like a football game! Florida is currently being bombarded with anti-Trump ads. Rubio hates Democrats for talking about folks being poisoned in Michigan, and nobody really cares what Mittens thinks anymore.

Will the anti-Trump campaign and "strategic voting" derail Drumpf. I don't see it.

There are nine contests for the GOP over the next five days. I have Trump winning Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, and Mississippi. I have Cruz winning Kansas, and Rubitron winning Puerto Rico. I have no idea who will win Idaho and Hawaii. (Maybe Cruz and Rubitron, respectively?)

The Drumpf Dirigible floats on.

 

 

 

Ciao,

Ardent

 

March Madness: Predictions For the Next Six Democratic Contests

 

That is what it looked like in 2005 when the Vermont Catamounts stunned Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. And, that is essentially the kind of thing that feelthebern is trying to do now, eleven years later,

Can Bernie Sanders fit in to Cinderella's slipper, and win it all at the Big Dance?

It has been a wonderful run, and there is no reason for him to give up now, but the math is not adding up, and Midnight is drawing near.

The feelthebern kids are trotting out the delegate counts, excluding the Super Delegates -- which they should -- saying, "Only two-hundred down! Lots of big states coming up!"

What they fail to mention is how delegates are awarded proportionally in the Primary contests. And that the math looks especially tough for the cause in those big states in March.

Take a look at the 2016 Primary Forecasts at Nate Silver's 538. (Or, maybe not if you are a dreaming about a revolution.)

Michigan, 8 March: HRC a greater than 99% chance to win.

Florida, 15 March: HRC a greater than 99% chance to win.

Illinois, 15 March: HRC a 98% chance to win.

Ohio, 15 March: HRC an 87% chance to win.

What those numbers mean are that not only is Madam Secretary likely to win all four of those delegate rich states, but that she is polling to win those states by very large margins, which will reflect in the proportional allotment of delegates.

Bernie is going to win some states this month, too. But, for Sanders to realistically have a shot at this thing, the numbers above would have to be completely flipped. He would have to have a 99% chance to win Michigan, Florida, and Illinois; an 87% chance to win Ohio. Because he is down by 200 delegates, and he has to make that deficit up quickly. He can not do that by plucking off Maine, Nebraska, and Kansas, crossing his fingers and counting on New York, California, Oregon, and Washington state. California does not vote until June! This will all be wrapped up by then.

I do not want Bernie to drop out. I want him out there as long as he is willing, and he has money. I would like to see him start sharing some of that money with the DNC for down ballot races, like Hillary has been doing all along; and I'd like to see his supporters start donating to down ballot Democrats, as well. But this nomination contest is essentially over, and on March 16 Bernie and his supporters are going to have to start planning their endgame. Midnight is drawing near.

As for the next six contests: Bernie will win Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine. Ninety-seven delegates are up for grabs there. Hillary will win Louisiana, Michigan, and Mississippi. Hillary's states have 247 delegates in play. For all six contests I have Clinton claiming 55% of the delegates, extending her 200 delegate lead by about thirty, or so.

 

 

 

 

Go Catamounts!

 

 

 

 

Ciao,

Ardent Henry