Ranger Ace, Cliff Lee, is starting to hang out with these guys now:

Bob Gibson

Christy Mathewson

Sandy Koufax

In fact, Koufax's post-season top line stats are eerily similar to Lee's right now.  Except Lee is better.  And Koufax (& Gibson & Mathewson) all pitched in low-scoring eras, to boot.

The Rangers 2010 post season record is 5-3.  Two of those three losses were bullpen meltdowns where they surrendered the lead in the eighth inning.  The Rangers have led at some point in every single game save one, the 5-2 loss to Tampa.  The Rangers have outscored the Rays & Yankees 41-21.  The Rangers have yet to be shut out  and have scored two or fewer runs just once (that above-mentioned Tampa loss.)  The Rangers' staff have thrown two combined shutouts and held the Rays & Yankees to two or fewer runs five times (all wins, natch.)

The Rangers 2010 post season winning percentage is .625.  The Rangers are scoring 5.13 runs per game.  The Rangers are allowing 2.63 runs per game.  That run differential should equal out to a .792 winning percentage, which means they should have a 6-2 post season record.  The Rangers are underperforming by one full game.  Variation from the pythagorean win expectation (especially with a super small sample size such as this one) is best explained by two things:  poor/great bullpens and plain-old, no kidding, dumb luck.  


It is better to be playing below your pythagorean win expectation because as your sample size gets larger, game by game, regression kicks in and evens out all these variations.  


But, all that being said, the Rangers simply cannot afford another bullpen meltdown.  They got away with it against Tampa (thank you, Cliff Lee) but game one against the Yankees could come back to haunt this ballclub big time if they can't get one more win up in the Bronx.  


The most runs allowed by a Ranger starter in the 2010 post season:  Three by Tommy Hunter (that 5-2 loss again) and three allowed by CJ Wilson in game one against the Yanks (also a loss.)  


I'm not optimistic about the Rangers winning tonight.  I think Hunter is in for a rough night.  But if the Rangers can beat up on Burnett also and make it a shootout, we might have a shot.  


Baseball is beautiful.  Baseball is pain.