Notes on the latest GOP temper tantrum:

• Hey, I have gotten on board the Schadenfreude Express just like so many respected others, but really this whole latest debacle is not a laughing matter.  This GOP hissy fit has cost us over twenty billion dollars, and achieved absolutely nothing for the GOP, Democrats, or more importantly the country.  
• Rafael Cruz has cynically used the TradMedia, what limited powers he has, and veterans in order to fill his personal campaign coffers, the coffers of Teabagging PACs, and get his lying smirking face all over the teevee all the time.  This supposed voice of the real America did not even have the guts (thankfully!) to delay the Senate's vote on Wednesday, and instead held his own personal presser while Senate leadership was detailing the "deal" to the American public.  It is strictly about self-aggrandizement for him, and his "mission" has nothing to do with honest to goodness public service.  
• The GOP did win one thing that not many are talking about.  (Except digby, she talks about it every day.) The sequester needs to be repealed, and our nation deserves a real budget that will get the economy back on track and reduce unemployment.  We need no more Grand Bargains.  We need to stop talking about negotiating with the GOP about Social Security and Medicare.  Those programs should never be up for discussion regarding our budget.  The President stood tough this time.  He is not up for re-election anymore, and he needs to stand tough again.  
• This is my new favorite blog.  I learned about it from Alex Gibney in a feature interview he did for the NYT on Sunday.  Check it out.  They did great coverage of the implications and possible reaction from the Fed if the debt ceiling had not been raised.  
• Boehner's job is safe.  The asshat GOP Reps have circled the wagons around him, and are blaming the TradMedia, skewed polls, and a disrespectful evil President Obama for getting their asses handed to them.  And it is hilarious to see Pelosi bailing Boehner's ass out again, with over one hundred and ninety votes.  Pelosi was a great Speaker, and she deserves to be Speaker again.  She is a bona fide Political Powerhouse, and a fantastic Public Servant.  (Yeah, San Francisco!)
• Obama said it best a couple of days ago, that if you want to make or change policy in this country, "Win an election."
• I believe that the Treasury and the Fed will use "extraordinary" measures to extend the latest Debt Ceiling Deadline (February 2014) to later in the year.  I also believe that the GOP will do this all over again re a Government Shutdown in January, and that that is when some awful Grand Bargain deal will be reached. 
• This guy is back. Read the whole thing, but this should be the big takeaway:

3. Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House.

Even if the shutdown were to have a moderate political impact — and one that favored the Democrats in races for Congress — it might not be enough for them to regain control of the U.S. House. Instead, Democrats face two major headwinds as they seek to win back Congress.

First, there are extremely few swing districts — only one-half to one-third as many as when the last government shutdown occurred in 1996. Some of this is because of partisan gerrymandering, but more of it is because of increasingly sharp ideological divides along geographic lines: between urban and rural areas, between the North and the South, and between the coasts and the interior of the United States.

So even if Democrats make significant gains in the number of votes they receive for the House, they would flip relatively few seats because of the way those votes are distributed. Most of the additional votes would come in districts that Democrats were already assured of winning, or where they were too far behind to catch up.

Consider that, between 2010 and 2012, Democrats went from losing the average congressional district by seven percentage points to winning it by one percentage point — an eight-point swing. And yet they added only eight seats in the House, out of 435 congressional districts.

In 2014, likewise, it will require not just a pretty good year for Democrats, but a wave election for them to regain the House. But wave elections in favor of the party that controls the White House are essentially unprecedented in midterm years. Instead, the president's party has almost always lost seats in the House — or at best gained a handful.

One might be able to construct an argument for why the precedent could be violated. The pattern of the president's party losing seats in the midterms has been very strong in the past — but political scientists aren't quite sure why this is the case. One theory is that voters may elect members of Congress from the opposite party as a check on the president's power. But if Congress instead is seen as the more powerful entity, voters might desire to curb its power instead.

Essentially, Democrats will have to persuade swing voters that having Republicans in charge of one chamber in one branch of government is more dangerous than yielding unilateral control of the government to the Democrats — at a time when President Obama is fairly unpopular, and when the signature initiative of the last Democratic Congress has been rolled out badly. Moreover, the voters that Democrats have to persuade about this are somewhat right of center, since the median congressional district is somewhat Republican-leaning and since the voters who reliably turn out at midterm elections are older, whiter, and otherwise more conservative than those who vote in general elections. It's not an impossible task for Democrats, but the terrain is all uphill.

• A lot of people do not know this but the Democrats beat the GOP in the general House vote by about a million and half votes in 2012.  The reason they did not take over the House was because the GOP kicked ass and had their voters come out in droves in all their elections.  Red states gerrymandered their districts in order to preserve a GOP controlled House.  The only flipping way you can change this is to vote Democratic in every single flipping election.  All of them.  Every time.  Every year.  All the time.  

All right, enough with the lecturing.  This blog will be a lot more fun in the coming weeks, I promise, with more Conversations with Nick C; a post on the Salinger movie; stuff about The Sopranos, Downton Abbey, and Foyle's War; a post about Pavement; more fun polls from the Spitler Extremely Scientific Polling Organization (SESPO); and much much more.

Here is a fun video to cheer everybody up in the meantime:

I love you all, keep watching this space,
xxxoooxxx,
Ardent

digby Is Right, As She So Often Is

While all of the Trad (and Untraditional) Media are all a-buzzin' 'bout Tailgunner Rafael Edward Cruz's latest 2016 Presidential Campaign Event, otherwise known as Defund Obamacare or We Shut Down the Government, the real deal-making is going on behind closed doors between the White House and the ever so slightly less unhinged (than Cruz and Lee and Paul) GOP Senate "big boys".  (i.e. McCain, McConnell, and Coburn.)

Mike Lee and Rafael Cruz, taking the government hostage for freedom! (or something.)

Cruz's errand is the definition of a fool's.  Cruz insisted yesterday that Harry Reid should raise the threshold to sixty votes in the Senate to take the defund Obamacare amendment off the CR to fund the government.  It is, natch, something Reid would never do.  And, even if Reid, for whatever insane inexplicable reason, did decide to raise the threshold to sixty votes, this particular rule change would have to be approved by the full Senate one-hundred votes to zero.

Ain't never gonna happen.

That puts Cruz and Lee in the very awkward position of having to filibuster the GOP House approved CR that currently has the Defund Obamacare provision in it.  Cruz will be filibustering against his own party's legislation.

I know.  It is so flipping confusing, and annoying.  And, much of this crap would never occur if we only returned to the real honest to gosh old Talking Filibuster rules that the Senate had in the first place.

Anyhoo, Obamacare will not be defunded, and whether the government shuts down on October 1 is anybody's guess.  But, I can guarantee that some deal between the GOP Senate "big boys" and the White House will happen, and it will not be pretty for liberals (or for the country.)

And, then we get to do this again with the debt ceiling.  And, the next time we need to fund the government, and then again, and again, etc, ...

This is what happens when you do not vote in local and state elections, or "off-year" elections, like 2010.  Flipping vote in every election, people.









Michael D Spitler

Election Day Thoughts

Here is the greatest liberal progressive blogger of all-time, digby, with your drinking schedule for tonight.  She is much more pessimistic than me, so, that should tell you something.

(And, what the fuck? My parents were lucky enough to live in Switzerland from October 2001 until Obama was elected -- although my Da is still working in CH until he retires, and my Mum lives in Tulsa, OK now -- but, what does it say about our nation, that this thing, this General, this OEE, is this close?)

It is the media, dummy.

Unfortunately, after Obama has wrapped this thing up tonight, no media maven/pundit/expert will be held to bare.  The whole myth of a Liberal/Progressive media will only be; mistakenly, and righteously upheld.  

It was fixed, screams the Right.  Therefore, it must be so, says the media.

Read driftglass.  No one does better at exposing the false equivalency media circus than our Man in Chicago.  

The media are desperate to portray this OEE (Orchestrated Electoral Extravaganza) as a tight race.  Well, it is a tight race, as far as the national numbers are concerned, but, it is not a close race as far as the Electoral College is concerned.  (This is one of the main reasons Nate Silver's own employers, and others in the TradMedia hate him so much.  Plus, he is slender, talks in a high voice, and likes fine restaurants.) 

Why are the supposedly LeftTradMedia so willing to suck up to Mittens, and declare this a toss-up? Because, they have bills to pay, and Masters to serve.

Marx was fucking right, even if you are immediately turned off by my using his name.  

It is not race, or gender that ultimately differentiate between citizens of a culture, it is CLASS.  

Okay, enough lecturing, how about another great video, one of my all-time faves:

xxxoooxxx

I understand this point of view.

Five or ten minutes probably is all you need. And, we should all be more like Chomsky, trying to change life rather than reform the system.  (Love how he calls the 2012 General an " orchestrated electoral extravaganza".)

And, Obama does a lot of awful terrible stuff.  But even Chomsky says he would vote for Obama if he lived in a swing state.  He lives in Massachusetts and will be voting for the Green candidate, if he votes at all.

It is this simple:  If Romney has a chance to win your state, and you are a lefty,  you have to pull the Obama lever.  You have to.

************

I will watch the debate replay tonight, but I am not getting all hyped up about it.  Debates so rarely mean anything.  They are practically PSAs these days.   But I'm a politics junkie.  Curl up with a book, your sweetie, the beach, a sunset or a great movie instead.

Do not be like me.













All my love. Ardent

For the folks that brought you the forty hour work week,

Happy Labor Day everyone!

Here are some clips for you:

Those are two consecutive clips from John Sayles' 1987 film, Matewan, starring James Earl Jones, Chris Cooper, David Strathairn, and Will Oldham (Bonnie "Prince" Billy.)

Below is a trailer for Made in Dagenham, starring Sally Hawkins, Bob Hoskins, Rosamund Pike, Miranda Richardson, and Andrea Riseborough.

This post is inspired by and owes a serious debt to Hartley and digby over at Hullabaloo.

Ardent

Oh, dear. Ron and Rand are in town, and that has got Mittens

All a-flutter.  Mittens is desperate to change the roll-call rules at the last minute, to ensure that not a single Ron Paul delegate gets a chance to be heard.  Well, what else is new, really? Because Mittens sure will not be talking about his new (latest?) "nuanced" views on abortion, which do not jibe with the RNC Platform, his Veep pick, or Todd "Magical Ladyparts" Akin's.  Or, about Romneycare, which Mittens has suddenly dragged out of the closet in a pathetic attempt to win women voters, and, which, natch, stands in stark opposition to the RNC Platform, his Veep pick, and all the lovely Teabagging Koch-fiend crazies on the floor.

Why go over all that health care poop again? Really.  We all know you will have the Ladyparts Vote all wrapped up after Ann and LL Cool P speak this week.  He is soooooo hunky.

Meanwhile, here is some digby goodness about our friends with Ladyparts getting the right to vote.  Plus, some more Ladyparts digby goodness, too.  (Shhhhhh, they say the v-word in that song, .... )

digby

We are going over the pail, indeed.

Yes, and that

Joe Biden guy (and that Kenyan Muslim dude he works for) are sooooo mean!

Here is what real asshattery looks like.

I am sure Mittens will denounce this ad campaign any minute now.

************

And, then there is Rafalca's owner, Mittens' Wifey, getting real huffy about The Help (h/t Charlie Pierce) repeatedly asking about them tax returns.

Yesterday, Mittens, himself, told us, "There is nothing to see here" re said tax returns.  Fine, frickin' show them to us, already.  

Some excellent links to thoughts on

Mittens' pick of Paul Ryan:  Dante from Hullabaloo, Nate Silver from 538, and Digby, also from Hullabaloo.

Meanwhile, Democrats suffered a huge defeat in Pennsylvania today, with the Voter ID (read Voter Suppression) law not overturned.






Michael

Good flipping grief!

I saw this through TBogg, who passed me on to Digby. 

S. E. Cupp deserves to be locked up in a cell and forced to watch Make Way for Tomorrow over and over and over again until she can produce a soul.  Or a heart.  Or some brains.

It is folks like Ms Cupp who are your standard-bearers for "thoughtful Conservative" (read oxymoronic) journalism today.  UGH!

So, marry well, Sisters, and everything will be all right!












mds

If Ms Trotta was working for any other network

She woulda been canned.

Self-loathing kills, Sister.

But she works for Fox News so she was propped up again the next Sunday and allowed to "backpedal" and be contrite.  Except she did not do that even.  She said the same exact crap she had said the week before on Fox while Fox lamely attempts to cover their ass by putting the word, "COMMENTARY" in Ariel typeface in the top left-hand corner.

The main thrust of Ms Trotta's self-loathing, self-hating, Right Wing, nutjob, backlash argument is: That our courageous, honorable Sisters in Uniform would not get raped and abused and ridiculed by their fellow male soldiers if they would get out of the military once and for all, a place Ms Trotta has decided women are not fit or meant for.


Ugh.  It makes you sick.

h/t to David Atkins

At the fabulous Hullabaloo political blog:  He directed me to this fantastic Kurt Andersen piece at Vanity Fair.  

Def worth a read, and funny, too.  Kurt Andersen has always been good and funny.

Kurt Andersen was co-editor with Graydon Carter for the greatest magazine in history:  Spy Magazine The New York Monthly.

AH

Digby

With more of those pesky "facts."

Digby

Nails it again.

Yup, this is

For all you deficit peacocks and Libertarian Lovers out there:

Dagny Taggart and John Galt have put in the call.

Your beloved risk-taking, tough-as-nails, macho entrepreneurs have told Congress they had better raise the debt ceiling in no uncertain terms.

So, why on earth would Dems negotiate with the GOP on this one? Smartly, Reid has started talking about getting rid of oil subsidies, and even Kent Conrad is talking about a tax increase for millionaires.

Still, like digby, I am not optimistic that Dems will get this no-brainer right.

Tuesday appears to be a

Banner day for Teabaggers, Randians, and our humble GOP.  


Paul Ryan and his hateful hordes have decided they want to abolish Medicare.


Fox News and the rest of GOP flacks and losers will tell you that this is just reform or that they are actually saving Medicare.  


They are lying.  Because that is how they work.  If you are 55 or older now then, according to your wonderful GOP, you had better start saving your pennies now because you will have to go through the Private Insurers ten years from now.


Do not fall for this shit again.  

"Old? Pre-existing condition? I don't care! Jeez, get away from me."

I will now pass you on to the amazing digby's take.  

Pretty cool to see what is

Happening in Madison, WI these past few days.  Teachers are calling out "sick", forcing schools to shut down; protesters have been occupying the state house; and the entire Democratic Senate caucus has left town, actually the state, meaning there can be no vote on the newly elected idiotic Republican Governor's Union-busting bill.  Even some of the World Champion Green Bay Packers have come out against this stupid bill, citing that the Packers are the only publicly-owned NFL team.  Good for all those folks.

They ain't celebrating the Packers' Super Bowl win, they're standing up to Union-busters!

Governor Walker is in a tizzy now.  He's called out the state police to find these Senators.  One of the first things Walker did upon taking office was to nix the Fed money for high-speed rail.  Smart.  The Feds told him if you say no to the new program you cannot use the money for something else.  The money would be shared with the states that want high-speed rail.  Well, now the new Republican goofball Governor of Florida says he don't want no money for high-speed rail, either.  He wants to use the money for highways.  Cannot do that, guy.  Sweet.  It means that us folks in California, who do want high-speed rail, and all the jobs and environmental benefits that it brings to our fair state, will get even more money.

************

Bernie Sanders, I love you.  He may be the last true US public servant we will ever see.  This was posted by digby today.  It is a long interview for blogging standards but you really should read the whole thing.  I am going to say it one more time:  There is nothing wrong with Social Security.  It is fully-funded until 2037.  Plus, Social Security has absolutely nothing to do with the deficit, and lastly, those that you hear who are complaining the loudest about a "bankrupt" Social Security are those that want to destroy Social Security.  Do not listen to them.  They are evil and they are wrong.

Bernie was so magnificent in the interview.  He hit on just about every single issue progressives need to concentrate on in the future and did not pull any punches re the crappy Bush tax-cut extensions.  Love that guy!

************

Meanwhile, there was this cool miniseries I saw on PBS back in the mid-nineties (I did not have Kabletown back then) called Shut Down! It starred Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton in a stupid political struggle that really did no one any good.  In fact, it only pissed Americans off and embarrassed the GOP.

It appears that golf-loving, tanning salon aficionado, Boehner (along with his new Teabagging buddies) wanta do a remake.  Whatever.  I know how the thing ends.

Some folks just never learn.

************

Saturday, this space:  Tre Bicchieri!

This is some

Good stuff.  &, it sure did not take v long for Rove to start walking his Hannity appearance back, hunh? Maybe Rove will apologize to Rush! 

Digby rocks.

 Here are the facts re Social Security.  Don't believe the crap.  Anyone who insists Social Security is broke is someone who wants to abolish Social Security.

So Brill

Is this.