Mar 22, 2016


Alright, all you Berniebros, Bernie folks, and Bernie kids, now is your time. Are you excited? Are you truly feeling the Bern? Because until 19 April when New York state has its' closed Primary, there will be eight Democratic contests, seven of which Senator Sanders should win. In fact, I suggest to you, that the high point of Bernie's bid for the nomination will occur on 5 April when he delivers his speech celebrating his recent wins in Wisconsin and Washington state. That may very well be the absolute high point of Sanders' long career of public service. Plus, the media will be lapping it all up. "Bernie is only two contests behind!" And the knives will come out for Hillary all over again, "Can Bernie do this?" will be furiously whispered all across the cable networks, newspapers, and digital ink of blogs.

"Can Bernie do this?"

Bernie's finest moment of the campaign -- much like what happened with Michigan and the five state Hillary sweep one week later -- will have its' own hangover. That hangover is called New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Those four Hillary wins at the end of April will all but seal the deal, and that is when we will seriously start hearing the media say things like, "... the first woman ever to be nominated by a major party for President of the United States".

Because I hate to break it to you, but, No, Bernie can not do this. Look at the math. After Bernie's Magical Mystery Tour through the West, where he wins Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wyoming, and Wisconsin, I have him cutting into Secretary Clinton's lead by forty-five delegates. That means there will be another eight contests run off the clock and Clinton will still have a commanding lead of two hundred and seventy-five pledged delegates with only twenty states to go.

In order just to reach a virtual tie -- and I certainly do not think that Clnton's super delegates would switch to Bernie if he was only on even terms with her in pledged delegates -- Bernie would have to average +14 pledged delegates for every single one of the last twenty contests. And we all know he is not going to win all twenty contests, which means he needs a lot of big state Bernie blowouts.

Say what you will about Hillary's sweep through the South, or the Michigan debacle (she lost by two points), or her "uninspiring speeches", or how she should "smile more", but the fact remains that even if Hillary does not win a big state -- and she has won just about every big state contested so far -- she at least keeps it close enough that Bernie cannot make any serious headway.

That is why I do not buy in to any of this "Hillary is underachieving" boojwah. Hillary Clinton leads in contests won, the popular primary vote (by two million votes) and the pledged delegate count. Hate to get all Drumpf on you, but that is what winning the nomination looks like.

Creating hashtags and crushing it on Twitter does not necessarily win you elections.


I am 47-6 picking primary contests so far. That works out to 89%. I am not going to reach my goal of 95%. My new goal is ninety percent. I have been wrong on Missouri for both parties, Oklahoma for both parties, Maine for the GOP, and Michigan for the Dems. I am picking Arizona for Clinton, and Idaho, Utah, Washington state, Alaska, Hawaii, Wyoming, and Wisconsin for Senator Sanders. (I am at liberty to change my Wisconsin pick as we get closer to it. I still think Clinton has a shot at eking out a narrow victory there.)

As for the upcoming GOP contests, I have Drumpf winning Arizona and Cruz winning Utah. I am not ready to pick the Wisconsin GOP Primary yet.

Love you all,

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