Mar 4, 2016

March Madness: Predictions For the Next Six Democratic Contests


That is what it looked like in 2005 when the Vermont Catamounts stunned Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. And, that is essentially the kind of thing that feelthebern is trying to do now, eleven years later,

Can Bernie Sanders fit in to Cinderella's slipper, and win it all at the Big Dance?

It has been a wonderful run, and there is no reason for him to give up now, but the math is not adding up, and Midnight is drawing near.

The feelthebern kids are trotting out the delegate counts, excluding the Super Delegates -- which they should -- saying, "Only two-hundred down! Lots of big states coming up!"

What they fail to mention is how delegates are awarded proportionally in the Primary contests. And that the math looks especially tough for the cause in those big states in March.

Take a look at the 2016 Primary Forecasts at Nate Silver's 538. (Or, maybe not if you are a dreaming about a revolution.)

Michigan, 8 March: HRC a greater than 99% chance to win.
Florida, 15 March: HRC a greater than 99% chance to win.
Illinois, 15 March: HRC a 98% chance to win.
Ohio, 15 March: HRC an 87% chance to win.

What those numbers mean are that not only is Madam Secretary likely to win all four of those delegate rich states, but that she is polling to win those states by very large margins, which will reflect in the proportional allotment of delegates.

Bernie is going to win some states this month, too. But, for Sanders to realistically have a shot at this thing, the numbers above would have to be completely flipped. He would have to have a 99% chance to win Michigan, Florida, and Illinois; an 87% chance to win Ohio. Because he is down by 200 delegates, and he has to make that deficit up quickly. He can not do that by plucking off Maine, Nebraska, and Kansas, crossing his fingers and counting on New York, California, Oregon, and Washington state. California does not vote until June! This will all be wrapped up by then.

I do not want Bernie to drop out. I want him out there as long as he is willing, and he has money. I would like to see him start sharing some of that money with the DNC for down ballot races, like Hillary has been doing all along; and I'd like to see his supporters start donating to down ballot Democrats, as well. But this nomination contest is essentially over, and on March 16 Bernie and his supporters are going to have to start planning their endgame. Midnight is drawing near.

As for the next six contests: Bernie will win Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine. Ninety-seven delegates are up for grabs there. Hillary will win Louisiana, Michigan, and Mississippi. Hillary's states have 247 delegates in play. For all six contests I have Clinton claiming 55% of the delegates, extending her 200 delegate lead by about thirty, or so.





Go Catamounts!





Ardent Henry


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