Feb 28, 2016

Democratic Predictions for Super Tuesday, Part III, the "SEC"

Before I start with my predictions for the "SEC" region of Super Tuesday, I would like to point out a couple of things to the feelthebern folks: Please please please stop touting hypothetical one v one match ups for the general election. Those polls do not mean a gosh darn thing right now. Plus, the GOP and their Super PAC legions have yet to spend one dollar on negative ads against Senator Sanders. In fact the GOP and their Super PACs have only spent money running negative ads in the Primaries against Madame Secretary. (Yeh, and she is still beating Bernie. Impressive.)

Second, there was a lot of whinging yesterday from the feelthebern crowd about, "Well, she won South Carolina. Big deal, it won't vote Democratic in the general." So, those Democrats in red states do not count? Seriously? And, that attitude does nothing so more as show your naïveté re elections. That is exactly how you win nominations! Dems have to win Red State Primaries, and Reublicans have to win Blue State Primaries. In fact, that is one of the litmus tests for selecting a nominee, and producing someone who can win the General.

Anyway, the "SEC" is the best region for Hillary on Super Tuesday. This will be a Red State rout for Ms Clinton, and she will win every single one of these states on March 1. And, by big big margins, too.

The states are: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Virginia. Senator Sanders best chance for an upset would be Virginia, but I find it very unlikely.

Moreover, I do not see Sanders hitting any of Nate Silver's "benchmarks for the Nomination" in this region. Maybe in Alabama. Maybe in Virginia.

I have Clinton winning 63% of the SEC delegates on March 1. About 250 to 150 for Sanders. For all three regions on Super Tuesday I have Ms Clinton winning 58% of the delegates, a total margin for Ms Clinton 590 to the Senator's 450.

And, since all Democratic Primaries have delegates awarded proportionally, this means Senator Sanders is in a world of hurt. After Super Tuesday Sanders would have to win every single little state, and would have to not only win states like CA, OH, PA, FL, NY, IL, but win them by very large margins to make up the one hundred and fifty delegates he is behind in.
It is not impossible. Just very very difficult.


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