Feb 28, 2016

Democratic Predictions for Super Tuesday, Part II, "The Big XII"


This is the second of my three posts for predicting the Democratic Primaries on Super Tuesday. This post focuses on "The Big XII" region: Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado (hey, they used to be in The Big XII), and American Samoa (which I have got to throw in somewhere.)

This is a good region for Hillary Clinton, mainly because of Texas, which has the largest amount of delegates so far, and because she is doing so well in the Lone Star State.

Even if Hillary lost both Oklahoma and Colorado, both of those losses would be nail biters, and the delegates would split fairly evenly.

Although there has been a fair amount of talk about how well Senator Sanders is doing in Oklahoma, and about his massive rally in Tulsa recently, I am from Oklahoma, and I have a very hard time believing he is going to win there. I have Madame Secretary winning Oklahoma by a slim margin, winning huge in Texas, and winning American Samoa (despite Tulsi Gabbard's leaving the DNC and endorsing Sanders.)

There has been hardly any polling from Colorado, so, I am going on my gut, and the social media I have been following, and calling it for Bernie. But it will be close.

Senator Sanders will not hit any of Nate Silver's "benchmarks for the nomination" in this region. And, I have the delegate split as 60/40 for Ms Clinton. She should end up with roughly 230 delegates to Sanders' 150.





Ardent Henry


No comments:

Post a Comment