Feb 25, 2016

GOP Super Tuesday Predictions


Or, it is the short fingered vulgarian's world, and we are all just living in it. One of the betting markets that the 538 nerds love has Trump at about fifty percent to win the nomination, Rubitron at forty, and Cruz in single digits. Notably, Nate Silver is still reluctant to "buy" Trump at this point. He is "holding".

The theory is from Nate, and others, that Rubio really is still in this thing at least until Florida on March 15. Rubio would have to win his home state, a state he is currently trailing in the polls, Puerto Rico, and blue districts in states like Illinois, California, and Ohio. And, Rubio is going to have to start finishing in second in just about every contest until Florida and beyond, wherein he will have to start winning the back loaded winner take all states at the end. He also needs Carson to stay in longer than Cruz, and needs Kasich out sooner rather than later. Plus, Rubio needs the big money guys that are on the sidelines to start backing him.

Gosh, that seems like a tall order. It is possible, and I suppose we can not officially call the nomination for Trump until Florida, but I see this as incredibly unlikely. More and more I am starting to believe that the GOP machine is beginning to resign themselves to a Trump nomination. Perhaps they think they can control him at that point. Good luck with that.

As for the big money guys hitching their star to Rubio's wagon, I see no reason why they should do that on March 2. Because it is going to be a massive Trump fest the day before.

On Super Tuesday I have Trump winning Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia.

I think Rubitron should finish in second in all of those states mentioned above except for Arkansas and Oklahoma, where Cruz would.

I think Cruz will win Texas, and Trump will finish second there.

I honestly have no idea who will win Alaska and Minnesota. Rubio's best shot for an upset victory is Virginia, and maybe Minnesota, who the heck knows.

And, I am calling the American Samoa Primary for Marco Rubio. So, he has that going for him.




Ardent Henry


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