Feb 25, 2016

Democrats Super Tuesday Predictions, Part I, "The Big East" UPDATE!!! 2/29/16

I am going to divide my predictions for the Democratic Super Tuesday Primary contests in to three different posts. They will divided regionally, and they will be named after college athletic conferences (which you should know are not perfect by any stretch of the imagination.) I have also decided to give the feelleberne folks the good news first. So savor.

The "Big East" Primaries on March 1 are Massachusetts, Vermont, Minnesota (I told you it wasn't perfect), and Democrats Abroad.

I am calling that Senator Sanders will win all four of these contests. Minnesota and Massachusetts will be close, Vermont will be a blowout, and who knows about Democrats Abroad, really, though I figure those sort of folks probably skew fairly left.

I am predicting that Sanders will claim 58% of the delegates in these states, giving him a Big East margin of roughly 150 to 100 for Clinton.

As for Nate Silver's famous "benchmarks for a Sanders nomination", I only see Sanders hitting that in Vermont. Maybe in Massachusetts. Maybe in Minnesota. If he does hit three benchmarks in this region it will have been a big night for him. Because the other two regions on March 1, "The Big XII" and the "SEC" do not look nearly as good for him as this region.


UPDATE:  I am changing my call on Massachusetts.  Clinton wins Massachusetts narrowly, and splits the delegates for that state at about a 55/45 rate.  


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